WASHINGTON – The United States is Canada’s closest neighbor and largest trading partner. Whoever wins the race for the White House in November will be in the driver’s seat when the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is revised in 2026.
Although Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump take different approaches to trade, both are peddling protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canada.
“We’ve done this before,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said recently when asked about the two presidential candidates, who said they would push for a review of the landmark trade deal.
“We can do it again if we need to.”
Ms. Harris campaigned to vote against the trilateral agreement and made comments in support of the Biden administration’s “Buy American” procurement rules.
Meanwhile, Mr Trump’s stated taste for tariffs is at the heart of his agenda. He has already suggested a general rate of 10%, increasing it to more than 50% in recent interviews.
“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘customs,'” argued Mr. Trump Tuesday.
This rhetoric rings alarm bells north of the border. More than 77% of Canadian exports go to the United States, and 60% of Canada’s gross domestic product comes from trade.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce released a report earlier this month suggesting that Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs will reduce the size of the economy by between 0.9 and 1%, resulting in economic costs of approximately $30 billion a year. Things would be even worse if other countries responded by imposing their own tariff barriers.
Lessons from Trump’s first presidency
Mr. Trump’s first administration showed how vulnerable Canada is to the whims of the United States when the former president abandoned the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
The negotiation of CUSMA, commonly called “the new NAFTA,” was a key test for Ottawa after Mr. Trump’s victory.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the updated trilateral pact “a victory for all Canadians,” and experts say it was more moderate than Mr. Trump originally promised.
Mr. However, Trump’s trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, has written critically about the renegotiation, writing in his book that “NAFTA was hanging by a thread at one point”.
“With Trump at the helm, he’s certainly a very volatile individual,” said Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-US relations and executive director of the Future Borders Coalition.
“And its impact on global stability and security and on international relations with the United States will be significant — and not in a good way.”
Canada has learned from its first presidency. Mr. Trump followed a fairly orthodox Republican trade agenda, punctuated by explosive personal stunts, Ms. Dawson explained. He gave most of the responsibility for business relations to Mr. Lighthizer, who was more predictable.
Alec Beck, the fifth congressional district chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party, said he thinks talk of Mr. Trump being an isolationist is overblown. Mr. Beck, whose state shares a 550-mile border with Canada, said the two countries need to work together and that tariffs are a bad idea.
Nationalist and protectionist actions to expect from Harris
If Ms. Harris wins, relations will be more normal, based on established patterns and rules, said Aaron Ettinger, a professor of politics at Carleton University in Ottawa.
The vice president is expected to follow the path laid out by President Joe Biden, which has brought some stability but not much change. He has largely kept Mr Trump’s tariffs in place, despite promises to reverse them.
Mr. Biden also signed an executive order revoking the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska.
Dawson said she expected a Harris administration to continue nationalistic and protectionist actions.
Ms. Harris campaigned to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. It’s a great slogan, Ms. Dawson said, “but it’s terrible if you’re Canada.”
The impact of these policies on Canada-US relations may not be clear to voters who support America First slogans.
Experts have warned that trade and tariff threats will also bring costs to Americans.
At a cabinet retreat in August, Ms Dawson warned Mr. Trudeau’s team that regardless of who wins the US presidency, Canada will have to work harder to maintain existing advantages in labor integration and travel.
Canada will rely more on ad hoc lobbying and advocacy to get preferential treatment as Republicans and Democrats move away from the security of historic trade deals.
Experts and business groups have sounded the alarm about Canada’s changing role vis-Ã -vis its closest allies. Many argue that the relationship between the two countries has moved from a strategic relationship to a transactional one, with Canada becoming less critical compared to other places in the world.
A report by the Canada-U.S. Relations Expert Group, which includes former diplomats, political advisers and business leaders, has warned that Ottawa is “sleepwalking” as it approaches a review of the 2026 Canada-U.S. trade deal. The described July- report mr. Trump’s current relationship with the Liberal government is “cold at best”.
Dawson argued that Canadian concerns will not be assuaged in the coming weeks before the election. We’ll have to wait until well after November to find out what both sides really have in store for the Canadian relationship.
“I’m much more concerned about the trajectory we’re going to follow, about the falling dominoes that will happen through this new revision of NAFTA.”